Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections - Paperback

by W. Joseph Campbell (Author)

This update of a lively, first-of-its-kind study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns takes up pollsters' failure over the decades to offer accurate assessments of the most important of American elections.

Lost in a Gallup tells the story of polling flops and failures in presidential elections since 1936. Polls do go bad, as outcomes in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, and 2000 all remind us. This updated edition includes a new chapter and conclusion that address the 2020 polling surprise and considers whether polls will get it right in 2024.

As author W. Joseph Campbell discusses, polling misfires in presidential elections are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides have occurred. They have pointed to the wrong winner in closer elections. Misleading state polls have thrown off expected national outcomes. Polling failure also can lead to media error. Journalists covering presidential races invariably take their lead from polls. When polls go bad, media narratives can be off-target as well. Lost in a Gallup encourages readers to treat election polls with healthy skepticism, recognizing that they could be wrong.

Back Jacket

W. Joseph Campbell's work always opens my eyes, challenging assumptions the world has turned into facts. Whenever I get a chance to read Campbell's work, I seize it.--Jake Tapper, CNN anchor, chief Washington correspondent and author of The Outpost and The Hellfire Club

"Pioneering pollster George Gallup once noted wryly that the only 'crime' in his business was to get an election wrong. If so, it's a profession full of recidivists, as W. Joseph Campbell details in his sweeping account of polling failures in U.S. presidential elections. Campbell, who was a historical fact-checker before fact-checking was cool, has given us the definitive account of this topic in a well-written narrative that is riveting even though the reader knows how the stories end. Now they will know why, as Campbell reveals the deleterious effects that polling debacles have on our already stressed politics. In the midst of another presidential election, this book is a must-read for every pollster, polling analyst, political writer, candidate, or campaign adviser in America, many of whom appear as characters--and not always admirable ones--in this superb book."--Carl M. Cannon, Washington Bureau Chief, RealClearPolitics

"This book should be on every pollster's desk to remind us of one stubborn fact: if we get too cocky with our polls, the actual voters will make us humble."--Spencer Kimball, Polling Director, Emerson College

"Campbell reminds us that in the weakened state of U.S. politics, we may not survive another public opinion polling blunder such as the one we experienced in 2016. His book clearly and patiently explains the long and troubling history of polling failures in presidential politics, dating back to the New Deal. Today's shaky, click-baited news industry is locked in a mutually dependent relationship with polling and may be more vulnerable to polling manipulation or misfeasance than journalists were in 1948. The book could not be more timely and should be a primer for every informed political observer and journalist."--William J. Drummond, Professor of Journalism, University of California, Berkeley

"Campbell takes a deep dive into the science of polling--when it works, when it doesn't, and why we continue to be fascinated with these 'snapshots in time' of public opinion. Lost in a Gallup is a well-researched, scholarly, and relevant look at the complexity of this key arena as we head into one of the most consequential elections of our era."--Carla Marinucci, Senior Writer, Politico

"This engaging history of presidential polling mishaps goes beyond the usual focus on methodological shortcomings. It explores how critics have depicted the codependent relationships between pollsters, politicians, and the press. The stage is set for the next polling problem to be revealed."--Joel Best, author of Damned Lies and Statistics and Stat-Spotting

"Worth a read for every political reporter."--Michael Socolow, Director, McGillicuddy Humanities Center Communication & Journalism, University of Maine, and 2019 Fulbright Scholar, University of Canberra

Author Biography

W. Joseph Campbell is an American writer, historian, and media critic who is the author of six other books, including the award-winning Getting It Wrong: Debunking the Greatest Myths in American Journalism.